中国制造的出路要靠“双引擎”:技术和品牌
作者:世界品牌实验室
2019-09-20
摘要:对话人:
剑桥大学制造业研究院教授斯蒂芬·埃文斯(Prof Steve Evans)
哈佛大学商学院市场系资深教授约翰·戴...

最近, 一位低调的实业家、福耀玻璃集团董事长曹德旺红了!曹德旺说在美国投资除了人工比中国贵,其他一切包含土地、税收、电力、物流、天然气、银行利息等等都比中国便宜,两相比较之后在美国生产比在中国生产还更有赚头。特别是他的“中国制造业的综合税负比美国高35%”的言论,被不断传播和评论。

 

福耀玻璃早在1995年就进军美国,在美国市场的年销售额近4亿美元,是福特、通用、克莱斯勒、卡特彼勒等美国品牌的供应商。为何中国制造如此受关注? 因为美国即将上任的总统特朗普发誓要绞杀中国制造。美国为何如此焦虑?因为过去8年,美国以外商投资和制造业回流的方式,增加的全部就业岗位,不过25万个,不及一个郑州的富士康工厂员工。

 

一年前,我们《总裁》杂志曾经刊登文章说,“李嘉诚走了无所谓,别让任正非跑了”! 李嘉诚先生虽然富可敌国,享誉世界,但李嘉诚不应是企业家的偶像。说到底,李嘉诚不过是个地产商,小一号的巴菲特而已。看看李嘉诚的商业帝国,没有高科技,没有制造业。以李嘉诚为首的“地产霸权”,已扩展至公用事业及零售服务业,成为香港贫富悬殊、民怨沸腾的罪魁祸首。同样是海外企业家,郭台铭的重要性就比李嘉诚大得多。但最近听说郭台铭也要走了,富士康要搬到印度,那就比较可怕了。富士康在中国大陆有超过100万员工,涉及到几百万个家庭,一旦失业,很难再有合适的替代岗位给他们。

 

就本土企业家而言,任正非对中国制造的“成本优势”正在遭遇包括《劳动合同法》在内的政策“风暴”,他也表示了相当程度的忧虑。

 

在过去一年中,中国各项产业政策、财税政策、用工政策正在经历着改革开放以来幅度最深、影响最广的一次调整。任正非的忧虑代表了“中国制造”产业链条的整体忧虑:事实上,华为这个中国“自主创新”型企业的最高典范,在中国制造业链条中,无疑处在价值链的相对最高端,有近一半为研发人员,几乎没有“产业工人”;每年收益中的10%投入研发环节。

 

特朗普的竞选口号中,最重要的一条是“把工作带回美国”。他大选时在铁锈地带(Rust Belt)获得巨大胜利,和此有关,因为“锈带州”汽车工业、钢铁工业等制造业的凋敝,是白人蓝领失业的核心原因。

 

今年11月30日,特朗普新任命的候任财政部长史蒂芬·姆钦(Steve Mnuchin)表示,他的工作重点将放在通过税收改革,刺激经济增长,创造更多工作机会上。说白了,“美国制造”开始向“中国制造”开火!

 

近期中国制造业面临着又一轮的倒闭潮,这里既有技术赶不上时代、前期投入过多,造成资金链断裂的企业,也有无法忍受人力成本急剧上升,出现歇业关门的企业,更有试图转型升级,但是却没有成功的企业。而根据公开报道,目前,松下、大金、夏普均计划进一步推进制造基地回迁日本本土,耐克、富士康、三星等世界知名企业也加快了撤离中国的步伐。

 

在这敏感时期,总裁杂志社总编辑丁海森,专门就“中国制造与中国品牌”这个话题, 访问了剑桥大学制造业研究院(University of Cambridge)教授Prof. Steve Evans(斯蒂芬·埃文斯)、哈佛大学商学院(Harvard University)教授Prof. John Deighton(约翰·戴腾)。

 

问题一:中国制造的成本优势正在消失。一面是中国制造成本的不断上升,另一面是美国政府力推的制造业回归。的确中美制造成本差距在缩小,据波士顿咨询公司2013年的研究报告,当时在美国制造商品的平均成本只比在中国高5%2015年,在美国低成本地区生产已经变得和在中国生产一样经济划算。更令人震惊的是,到2018年,美国制造的成本将比中国便宜2%-3%。如此下去,你认为中国制造的出路在哪里?提升技术? 或者树立品牌?

 

Q1. The cost advantage of made-in-China is fading. On one hand, the cost of made-in-China is soaring; on the other, the US government is making efforts to make manufacturing work return. It is true that cost gap between China and the US is narrowing. According to the research report of BCG of 2013, the average cost of making products in the US was just 5% higher than that in China at that time. In 2015, production in low cost areas in the US had become just as cost-effective as it was in China. What is even more shocking is that, in 2018, the cost of made-in-US will be 2%-3% lower than that of made-in-China. By then, where do you think will made-in-China go? Improve technology, or build brand?

 

Prof Steve Evans: The US cost advantage is based on the 'total cost equation'. This includes labour, materials, capital costs, transport and all of the indirect costs such as marketing and sales. China remains a country where the hourly cost of labour is lower than the USA, which would give it a total cost advantage IF EVERYTHING ELSE WAS EQUAL.

 

斯蒂芬·埃文斯教授:美国的价格优势是基于“总成本等式”,其中包含了劳工、材料、资本成本、运输和所有其他间接成本,如营销和销售成本。中国的每小时劳工成本依旧比美国低,这样的话,假设其他所有成本都相同的话,中国有总成本优势。

 

But not everything is equal, the transport costs are lower for USA companies manufacturing in the USA but the direct cost of transport is not a large factor. The disruption cost of long transport distances is in the scheduling cost, the extra cost of air-freighting rush goods, the paperwork cost for importing, the large increase in inventory holding cost, and the management cost for dealing with longer lead time deliveries. This last factor cannot be ignored because your customers Senior Management team is precious, and they may prefer a small total cost increase that frees up their time. But transport cost difference does not explain the gap between total cost in China and USA.

 

但是其他所有成本并不都是相同的。对于在美国本土进行生产的美国企业来说,运输成本较低,但直接运输成本并不是一个影响较大的因数。长途运输的扰动成本包括在调度成本、空运急货的额外成本、进口的文书工作成本、库存持有成本的大幅增加以及处理长交付周期货物的管理成本中。不要忽略此处最后一个因数,因为你客户的高级管理层是有限的,他们可能更倾向于接受能为他们节省时间的总成本小幅增加。但是运输成本的差异不能解释中美之间的总成本差距。

 

The biggest reason for the higher wage economy of the USA being competitive in total cost is productivity per worker. Chinese factories have largely been chasing scale  bigger factories are more profitable, and it is an obvious and easy strategy to adopt. Getting bigger means that management need the same skills as they already have. But this means that Chinese factories have not invested the same energy into efficiency as your competitors have done.

 

美国的高工资模式在总成本中有竞争力的最大原因在于其人均产量。中国工厂很大程度是在追逐规模:工厂规模越大,利润越高。这也是一个简单明了的策略。规模更大意味着管理层只需要具备现有的相同管理技能进行管理即可,但是这也意味着中国工厂没有像其竞争者一样在效率上投入相同的精力。

 

Chinese manufacturing is big, but not strong.

 

中国制造大而不强。

 

To be strong Chinese manufacturers must invest in their manufacturing engineering skills, improve process control and learn how to empower all workers to deliver continuous improvement. These three skills can be found in many Chinese factories, but most factories are not learning, even when they have world-class neighbours.

 

想要把中国制造做强,中国的制造业必须在其制造工程技术上投入,改进过程控制并学习如何使工人们进行持续改进。很多中国工厂都有这三种技能,但是大多数工厂都没有学习这些技能,即使中国在这方面有世界级水平的邻居。

 

An additional factor is the reducing importance of direct labour cost per hour. In UK manufacturing there are less direct workers than managers. The Western industrial system has invested in automation and productivity so that the only 10% of the total cost equation is worker labour. Western companies remain focused on reducing this cost but are also targeting the other 90% of the total cost equation  for example, Western factories have often been wasteful in their use of energy and water and raw materials, and they are now using the skills of manufacturing engineering, process control and continuous improvement to reduce these costs  which can be 50% of the total cost!

 

另一个因素是每小时的直接劳工成本的重要性在下降。在英国的制造业中,直接劳工的数量比管理者的数量少。西方工业体系已经在自动化和生产力上做了投入,所以总成本等式中仅有10%是工人劳动。西方企业仍然注重减少这一成本,同时也着眼于总成本等式中剩余的90%的部分。例如,西方工厂通常在能源、水和原料的使用方面比较浪费,现在他们使用制造业工程技术、过程控制和持续改进减少这些成本,他们可以仅占总成本的50%

 

Where will Chinese manufacturing go? Increased Chinese consumption is important, but to continue as a world force in manufacturing means exporting and being competitive. I hope that trade wars do not shape this future; instead Chinese manufacturers can invest in productivity using the same enthusiasm that they used for investing in growth. Some of this investment will be in product and brand development as companies seek to move up the value chain, but there is also tough global competition up there and without the cost advantage then new brands could struggle to export successfully. The cost advantage is still available to China, If it invests its management effort in learning how to be productive. Financial investment in automation and robotic equipment is one part of this, but the bigger investment is in people good engineers and good managers  who can drive productivity improvement year after year.

 

中国制造将走向何方?增加中国内需固然重要,但继续做世界制造业的中坚力量意味着出口和有竞争力。我希望贸易战争不会是世界的未来,相反中国制造业可以在产量上进行投入,就像他们当初那样热衷于对增长进行投入一样。一部分投入可以放在产品和品牌开发上,因为企业都想提升其产业价值链。但是世界范围内的竞争依然激烈,没有成本优势的话,新品牌无法成功出口。中国依然有成本优势,前提是其将其管理工作投入到学习如何增加产量上。对自动化和机械设备进行金融投资是一部分,但是最大的投入应该在人上面——优秀的工程师和管理层,他们可以年复一年的促进生产效率的提高。

 

问题二:每年制造数百亿件服装的快时尚行业一直头顶浪费、不环保的恶名。也许以价格便宜和出货量取胜的快时尚行业与可持续发展存在天然的对立,否则ZaraH&M为何不主动摘掉恶名? 时尚研究数据公司Edited预计,目前可持续系列只占Zara产品的1.5%,最早开始可持续系列的H&M其环保系列产品也仅仅占到3.5%。目前看来,头顶不环保的恶名的Zara等快时尚品牌,销售业绩还逐年攀升而不是下降,这是为什么?

 

Q2. Every year, the fast fashion industry where billions of pieces of clothing are made has always a notoriety of wasting and not environmental protective. Maybe there is a natural opposition between fast fashion industry and sustainable development, the former winning by cheap price and large shipments. Otherwise, why Zara and H&M do not take the initiative to remove their bad reputation? It is predicted by Edited, a fashion data research company, that current sustainable series only accounts for 1.5% of Zaras products. Environmental protective products series only accounts for 3.5% of H&M, where sustainable series developed the earliest. So far, the sales performance of fast fashion brands, with a bad reputation of not environmental protective, like Zara, is rising, rather than dropping, year by year. Why?

 

Prof Steve Evans: Fast fashion is a very specific part of the fashion industry, relying on customers returning to the store very frequently because the clothes change so quickly that the customer may miss something. Such an acceleration of a linear system  where we grow things in fields, process them, cut and sew into clothes, then ship them around the world to be sold quickly and worn quickly, then thrown away  cannot be sustained. It is very common for many fast fashion items to be worn only ONE TIME, then never used again. The fast fashion industry is aware of this but most of their customers are less aware of the problems it causes; so the industry is trying to change while not asking its customers to change. This is a very big challenge, and we see only limited penetration of environmental products in such stores while we see a growing store and profits.

 

斯蒂芬·埃文斯教授:快时尚行业是时尚行业的一个特定部分,因为服装款式变化很快,消费者们要频繁的回到店里选购才能跟得上时尚的脚步。田里种植-加工-裁剪缝制成衣服-运送到世界各地-快卖快穿然后丢弃……这样加速进行的线性体系是不可持续的。很多快时尚行业的商品只穿一次就扔了,这种现象非常普遍。快时尚行业明白这一点,但很少有消费者知道这样的后果。因此这个行业开始试着在不要求其消费者做出改变的基础上对其自身做出改变。这样非常有挑战性,我们在商店看到的环保产品数量停滞不前,但快时尚行业的商店和利润依然在增长着。

 

The actions of the fast-fashion industry leaders  Zara, H&M for example  show us that they are taking the problem seriously, but their solutions, even if they are very successful, can only reduce the size of the problem. We are now seeing an increasing number of experiments being conducted in smaller retailers, and in quiet corners of big retailer stores, where the relationship between the retailer and the customer is changed. Maybe the customer wants to share clothes with their friends, or maybe they want clothes that fit perfectly (and look so good that they wear them many times)? These experiments can bring surprising results  showing us how to make more customers happy with less clothes at more profit for example!

 

快时尚行业的领导者,如Zara H&M的举动向人们展示他们是在认真严肃地对待环保问题。但他们的解决方式,即便成功了,也只是治标不治本。我们可以看到小型零售店和大型零售商店的安静角落里正进行着越来越多的实验,在这些实验中,零售店和消费者之间的关系改变了。可能消费者想和朋友们分享服装,或者可能他们想要极致合身的服装(上身漂亮,所以想反复穿)?这些实验可以得到令人惊人的结果,它们向我们展示了如何用更少的衣服和更高的利润,进而达到消费者的满意!

 

I believe that this innovation in the relationship between fashion customer and retailer is the key to becoming sustainable. It is possible to reduce environmental impacts by over 50% while keeping customers in great clothes. Asking customers to buy less clothes is not a good solution for anyone!

 

我相信在快时尚消费者和零售商之间关系上的创新是使这个行业变得可持续的关键所在。减少50%以上对环境不良影响,同时让消费者穿上漂亮的衣服,二者可以兼得。让消费者少买衣服不是适合所有商家的良策!

 

问题三:中国语言和文化对于西方世界来说非常独特的。因此,中国品牌在外国消费者中并不容易引起共鸣。这对于中国企业进行品牌的全球营销时有什么影响?中国企业应该怎么避免可能的负面影响?

 

Q3. Chinese language and culture are quite unique especially in the Western market. Therefore it's relatively hard for a Chinese brand to bring about resonance with its foreign consumers. What is the impact of Chinese culture and language on global brand marketing? What can be done by Chinese enterprises to avoid the potential negative impact?

 

Prof. John Deighton: It limits the size of the service market if a Chinese brand relies on its Chinese heritage. The brand serves at best a niche. Here is an example from the beer category. Japans Asahi, Kirin, Sapporo, and Suntory beers are sold in the United States with emphasis on their Japanese imagery. They are consumed mainly in Japanese restaurants.  By contrast, Mexicos Corona beer is sold with no explicitly Mexican imagery. Instead the brand is associated with sun and beaches. It is a mainstream beer in the minds of consumers, not just a beer to drink when eating Mexican food. How, you might ask, does it sell against American beers? It uses its clear bottle as a differentiator, without alluding to its Mexican roots. It is often depicted with a slice of lime in the neck of the bottle, which is a practice widespread in Mexico, but advertising works hard to say that this fruit and beer combination is just the way things are done on the beach.

 

约翰·戴腾教授:中国品牌依赖文化遗产的话,会限制服务市场的规模。该品牌充其量服务于某个细分市场。

 

举一个啤酒类的例子。日本的朝日、麒麟、札幌、三得利啤酒在美国的促销重点放在日本形象。因此,这些啤酒的消费主要集中在日本餐馆。相比之下,墨西哥的科罗娜啤酒出售时没有明确的墨西哥形象。相反,品牌与阳光和海滩有关。它在消费者心中代表了主流啤酒,而不仅是吃墨西哥菜时喝的啤酒。你可能会问,它怎样对付美国啤酒的竞争?科罗娜采用了透明的瓶子作为区分,不暗指其墨西哥的文化根源。它经常被描述成在瓶口上加青柠檬片,这是墨西哥人的普遍喝法,但广告会让人觉得说,这种水果和啤酒的组合只是沙滩上的惬意生活罢了。

 

问题四:每个国家的产品都有特定的产品形象,如德国的产品形象是严谨、细致、高质量,日本是精致、人性化,而中国产品的形象则更多与廉价、低质量结合在一起,即使这些来自不同国家的同种产品都是毫无差别的。请问,当中国制造的产品走向国际市场时,采用什么样的营销策略会有效地改善中国产品的形象?

 

Q4. Every country has a specific product image, for example, German products have a rigorous, meticulous and high-quality image, Japanese products have a delicate, user-friendly image, while Chinese products image is more related to cheap and low-quality, even though products from those different countries are the exactly same. What kind of marketing strategy should Chinese products use to improve its product image efficiently while entering into the international market?

 

Prof. John DeightonAs I have argued earlier, country of origin branding should be a strategy to avoid if at all possible.  Korean cars and electronic products compete by being technically advanced and priced below the market leaders, not by being Korean. Japan had to overcome its country of origin heritage in the 1960s before it could succeed in the market. No-one asks where shoes are made, yet about 90% of all the shoes in the US are of China origin.  Build the brand on qualities consumers care about, and country of origin is not one of them.

 

约翰·戴腾教授:正如我刚才所说,品牌原产国这个战略应尽可能避免。韩国汽车和电子产品因为技术先进、定价低于市场主流而成为佼佼者,而并非因为他们是韩国人。

 

日本必须克服起源于20世纪60年代的所谓国家传承,才能够在市场上取得成功。没有人问鞋在哪里制造,但美国90%的鞋都是中国制造。将品牌建立在消费者所关心的品质之上,而不是原产地。

 

问题五:在大量文献回顾的基础上,对于品牌的研究,我们发现几乎所有的历史方法都忽略了品牌互动。当然,这是因为社交和移动媒体出现也是最近10年的事情。目前,我们世界品牌实验室正在重新考虑一种新的基于互动时代的品牌价值测评办法。您认为,影响品牌价值的关键因素是什么?

 

Q5, Based on massive literature review, we found out that nearly all historical methods ignored the function of brand interaction. This is because social and mobile media arose in the recent 10 years. Currently, World Brand Lab is rethinking a new method under Interactive Times. What are the key factors affecting the brand value?

 

Prof. John DeightonI agree with you that social media activity is neglected in measures of brand value. But I dont like to rely on inputs to brand value only, but also outputs. In other words, not only what causes brand value to increase, but what does in increase in brand value cause to happen? If you say what goes into a measure and also what happens as a result of the measure, then you have a way to check that adding some new input does a better job of tracking the output than before the new input was added.

 

约翰·戴腾教授:我同意你的观点,就是社交媒体活动在品牌价值的衡量中被忽略掉了。但是我不喜欢仅仅依靠对品牌价值的输入进行研究,还需要研究输出。也就是说,不仅仅要看是什么造成了品牌价值的增加,还要看品牌价值增加有什么结果。如果你知道测量的内容是什么,也知道测量的结果是什么,那么你就会发现,增加新的输入较之前能更好的跟踪输出。

 

I and others have written about measuring customer value, the expected lifetime earnings from my current customer base given current churn rate. That is a more promising direction for comparing the assets of one firm to anothers.

 

我和其它教授已经在衡量客户价值和在现有流失率基础上目前的客户基础能带来的预期终生所得方面发表了文章。这是比较企业资产的更有前途的方向。

 

不管美国制造业能不能实现回流,多大程度回流,从政府层面上看,跟随美国减税,降低中国制造业成本,都是唯一可选的选项。从企业角度来看,提高技术水平,加强品牌建设,从而提升品牌附加值,也是必经阶段。就是说,技术和品牌是中国制造的“双引擎”。然而,中国制造业的竞争对手不只是美国。在中高端制造业,有我们的老对手——欧盟、美国、日本、韩国。低端制造业,也面临着越南、印尼和印度越来越激烈的竞争。

 

制造业是任何强国的产业基石,这块蛋糕被不少国家都盯着。唯有做到了制造强国,才能有机会变身世界强国。但要想真正制造强国,中国制造必须要有严谨的制造精神。

 

十九世纪初期,英国人要求所有出口到大英帝国领土上的德国产品必须贴上Made in Germany的标签,从而将粗制滥造的德国货与做工精致的英国货区分开。德国企业家们感觉受到了奇耻大辱,从此一代代的改善产品,直到十九世纪末的时候Made in Germany已经成了高端的代名词,现在Made in Germany是德国工业骄傲的象征。

 

如何能使“中国制造”达到和超越“德国制造”的水平?德国工业的成就源自于100多年工业革命的悠久积累与深厚沉淀。而中国的差距,不在于技术投资,不在于创新意识,而恰恰在于对“积累”与“沉淀”的轻视。

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